alice

NFTRH; Mid-Day Notes

Well, it is a ‘just can’t win’ sort of a day.  Everything is down except for my short positions on SPXL and IWM, my Healthcare related items and SQM, as NFTRH+’d yesterday.

Treasury bonds are down, broad stocks are down, gold, silver (I am kicking myself for covering the short yesterday in a not so well thought out trade) and the miners… all down.  The thing that is not down is US cash (USD), which is the point of the high cash levels to begin with.  Today is annoying, but not a show stopper due to said cash.

Here is the US dollar fund UUP, with the Gold-Silver ratio (GLD-SLV) below it.  Risk would go off if USD continues upward and the GSR makes a strong move upward.  That would be the 2 Horsemen riding to bring the pain in a more well rounded fashion.  As it is, right now the GSR is only bringing pain to certain areas, first and foremost the precious metals.  It is still constrained below the SMA 50 and in a not bullish looking pattern.

uup gsr

HUI 195… my plan at the moment is not to use a daily close, but rather a weekly close as a confirmation of lost support.  Don’t get me wrong, a technical marker is a technical marker and taken at face value, HUI is below the neckline of an H&S pattern.  Period.

Regardless, I, a very different trader/investor than you, plan to hold on here to my light positioning.  That is because frankly, speaking as the human I am instead of the TA robot that I also am, I am pissed now; in the way that I was when a kid sucker punched me in junior high school.  Let’s just say I did not cry and run home.

hui

I am giving this thing wiggle room down to the next support level around 185, which has also been noted on this chart all along.  I am doing it because the big hype event is starting on Sunday (PDAC) and I am doing it just… because.  Sometimes as a trader, I go with intuition instead of the black and white TA.  Were I heavy in the sector I’d be much more aggressive in managing risk.

As for the broad market, it is doing a very normal thing in retracing some of yesterdays goofy post-Trump expression of greed and stupidity.  No sign that it is anything worse than that at this point.  Indeed, the VIX is negative today after improbably being very firm yesterday.  However, the VIX also has the look of a potential bottom.  If it holds the lows of the day (at the SMA 50) there could be more trouble for the stock market.

vix

I am trying to keep these in-day updates relatively simple, so I’ll clip it here.  Questions or other input always welcome.