Gas Relief (Public)

On September 22nd NFTRH+ had a bullish ‘look-ahead’ at the Natural Gas sector (FCG) and at the commodity itself.  As noted to subscribers I sold FCG too soon when it went up and then went up some more, and bought UNG too soon when it went down, soon finding myself buying again on the further drop.  All’s well that ends well.

The pattern has not yet fulfilled its target (it measures to around 9.60 as noted in the original update) and yet I sell.

ung daily chart

A nice profit is booked on UNG and true to NFTRH being a genius free zone, it took an email from a subscriber who was also long, informing me that he took his profits on today’s upside to get me to think harder about it myself.  I thought I’d continue to hold, but then I thought ‘hey wait a minute, who was buying more when the price dropped further to the SMA 50?’  Answer: Me.  ‘Who pays for a premium subscription (one of several I use that help make NFTRH the best of breed service that it is) to in order to have more angles with which to view a market?’  Me again.

So I checked and saw that even before the big upside of the last few days the public was over amorous to Gas and commercial hedgers were flat, from a previously very net long stance.  That’s probably just sound hedging in a rising price atmosphere, but the public optimism creeped me out a bit.  Anyway, it’s probably going higher but profit is… Beuller?

From Sentimentrader

natural gas optimism index

natural gas commercial hedgers position

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