The US Stock market is generally in a downtrend by daily and weekly charts. This means that the trend is down in all but the monthly time frame. The monthly…
Being a visual learner (as opposed to a facts and figures learner) I always like to look at the market's pictures in order to tune out idiotic and/or emotional headlines.…
Semi.org's latest book-to-bill (b2b) data is out, for August. The all-important 'Bookings' data hit a 6 month high (in its 3 mo. average) and if memory serves, this is higher…
From the email to subscribers that accompanied NFTRH 361: "The Indicators segment beats us all to a pulp talking about yield spreads, but I find more and more that this…
I hope you like the new site. It may take a bit of getting used to , but I love it. At the height of the mini hysteria, I shorted…
The Fed rolled over again, which was not surprising given global economic slowing, global monetary easing and a would-be firm US dollar's continued negative impact on US exporters and manufacturing. …
In line with the New York Fed and our own ahead of the curve readings on manufacturing (machine tools) from back in July, comes the Philly Fed with a lousy…
With the preamble that cash is the best position as risk rises (which it is doing as the market bounce continues and VIX sinks further) and that the FOMC is…
Just for perspective, ref. Michael Ashton’s post about the CPI and inflation. He is a specialist in inflation-sensitive investments and makes the interpretation of inflation and inflation expectations his business.
The FOMC is meeting tomorrow and it is always risky to speak in definites when such a potentially market roiling event (one way or the other) is in play. But a few things are happening in inflation sensitive markets that should be watched.
First, as we noted in an NFTRH+ update yesterday, Treasury yields are rising. Here is the 10 year in a bullish looking pattern.
With interest rates bouncing across the curve (beyond the Fed-controlled T Bill yield) per the projection of a previous NFTRH+ update (with a lag), I took a look at the logical beneficiary of rising yields, the Bank sector.
From the New York Fed: "The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers." Full PDF report here…
According to the amalgamation of 'Leading Indicators' to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree's post…
NFTRH 360 does a 360 all around the oh so highly anticipated FOMC 'decision', talks a little about the accuracy of professional economists' recession predictions and talks a lot about…
We have been watching the Semiconductor index re-take some of its past leadership in the broad US market. Hence, some favored Semi stocks are back on radar, for the short-term…