Here is the SPX daily chart showing the log scale view of a potential topping pattern that is so far holding to the script of ‘comps’ 2 and 3 (comp 1 extends too far back for this chart, but these two work fine for our purposes). All 3 situations show necklines with at least 2 support tests (orange shaded dots) that were eventually violated. Comp 2 rose to test the breakdown and failed into a bear market. Comp 3 broke through, tested the neckline as support (green arrow) a few months later and then eventually resolved into the big post-2012 leg up. As of today, SPX has tested the breakdown and remains in failure mode. But the test is not yet complete. Click the chart for a BIG view.
Here is the weekly view, showing the dome intact, but also decent MACD and RSI.
The shorter-term daily chart shows SPX moving toward the upper limit to the bear case, which is generally the top channel line. We should realize that this is a whacky period with lower volumes during which markets can get pushed around. So I want to get into January before giving too much credence to daily technical signals. But again, generally, the upper parameter awaits. The lower resistance parameters on the charts below were noted at lower levels when projecting a bounce. They can be viewed as short-term support areas now.
The sum of the 3 charts above tell me that the bear case still holds and it is being tested during Santa silly season.
Dow daily tested 17,750 yesterday and held below it. I was a little off on that number trying to anticipate time and projection for a test of the upper line. So let’s just call it 17,800 +/- and the top line as a key daily limiter.
NDX made a big pop toward the upper line.
Daily RUT, MID and SOX are all in bounce mode. SOX looks best, with the other two making ‘W’ patterns below the MA 50’s. Those W’s measure to break the MA 50’s, but such whipsaws can be expected in this market. Small and Mid Caps still look more bearish than bullish.
Finally, here is the weekly view of the NDX happily remaining intact while other aspects of the US market continue to be in bear mode.
Bottom Line
Nothing has changed. The market is taking the expected Santa bounce. Yesterday could give a bear pause, and I guess that is the purpose of such rallies. But at this time the bull case has not done anything to negate an intermediate bearish view. The moment it does, we will note it and adjust course. But at this time, US market status remains unchanged.
