From the email to subscribers that accompanied NFTRH 361: "The Indicators segment beats us all to a pulp talking about yield spreads, but I find more and more that this…
I hope you like the new site. It may take a bit of getting used to , but I love it. At the height of the mini hysteria, I shorted…
The Fed rolled over again, which was not surprising given global economic slowing, global monetary easing and a would-be firm US dollar's continued negative impact on US exporters and manufacturing. …
In line with the New York Fed and our own ahead of the curve readings on manufacturing (machine tools) from back in July, comes the Philly Fed with a lousy…
With the preamble that cash is the best position as risk rises (which it is doing as the market bounce continues and VIX sinks further) and that the FOMC is…
Just for perspective, ref. Michael Ashton’s post about the CPI and inflation. He is a specialist in inflation-sensitive investments and makes the interpretation of inflation and inflation expectations his business.
The FOMC is meeting tomorrow and it is always risky to speak in definites when such a potentially market roiling event (one way or the other) is in play. But a few things are happening in inflation sensitive markets that should be watched.
First, as we noted in an NFTRH+ update yesterday, Treasury yields are rising. Here is the 10 year in a bullish looking pattern.
With interest rates bouncing across the curve (beyond the Fed-controlled T Bill yield) per the projection of a previous NFTRH+ update (with a lag), I took a look at the logical beneficiary of rising yields, the Bank sector.
From the New York Fed: "The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers." Full PDF report here…
According to the amalgamation of 'Leading Indicators' to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree's post…
NFTRH 360 does a 360 all around the oh so highly anticipated FOMC 'decision', talks a little about the accuracy of professional economists' recession predictions and talks a lot about…
We have been watching the Semiconductor index re-take some of its past leadership in the broad US market. Hence, some favored Semi stocks are back on radar, for the short-term…
While the stock market does its wax on, wax off, wax on routine, two anxiety indicators continue to flag in consolidation. They are consistent, orderly and as long as they are flagging the market is probably okay. But these are still bullish looking consolidations.
Just trying to give you data points that I think are relevant as they crop up…
In NFTRH 359 we put a lot of effort into looking ahead to a time when the Gold-Silver ratio (GSR) may find heavy overhead resistance. That time could be a signal on the next inflation trade as the more inflation-sensitive silver out performs gold.
Just a short FYI update. VIX, touched the top end of the 20 to 22 pullback target zone. This was accompanied by a bounce in the S&P 500 to 1988 and subsequent fade (+.23% at 1973.88 at time of writing).
We were roughly looking for SPX 2040 and VIX 20-22 as a potential bearish setup. VIX hit 21.51 earlier today.