A few days ago we noted the small bounce in machine tools and other capital equipment orders for March. Yesterday the Chicago PMI came in firm. Today is Markit PMI and ISM. I think we may bounce. Conveniently, the US dollar is in its support zone.
Uncle Buck is now being talked about in the mainstream media as playing a major role in the economic softening (with a side of WC port shutdown and harsh winter) just as we anticipated it would months ago.
Now USD has dutifully declined, winter has ended and the union boyz at the ports are doing whatever they are doing. In other words, if economic data are going to bounce, the time is pretty much here.
If they do bounce, so too probably will the USD. I sometimes make fun of the currency Whack-a-Mole game going on globally, but really it is a macro economic game of Whack-a-Mole, with so many things interrelated and varyingly correlated.
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