Yearly Archives: 2014

NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Precious Metals & Broads

GDX got a boost as the US stock market sagged.  That is more like what we are looking for in the precious metals.  Today GDX is trying to take the 50 day averages.  Here is the view of this important parameter.

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January 13, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, A Negative Hint…

On Friday stocks went up, commodities went up… gold went up, with the weak ‘jobs’ report.  All of this presumably because the Fed could decide to back off tapering QE because of the bad report.

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January 13, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Post-Employment & the Precious Metals

Folks, today’s bad employment number is but one sample and it will probably take a trend to confirm anything about a softening economy.  But with T bonds rising hard today and their yield spreads lurching in a gold positive direction, we continue the recent mini trend of improving fundamentals for the gold sector.  Remember, gold is counter cyclical.  On that note…

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January 10, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, HUI daily technical status

Another quick review for gold stock traders and investors... HUI has continued to decline in normal fashion.  The gap was filled yesterday as expected and now 195 should hold on…

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January 10, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Risk Still ‘On’, Commod’s Hard Down, etc.

The US economy is relatively strong and short rates are rising harder than long rates.  This implies a continued ‘risk on’ environment.  This is theoretically bad for gold but generally precious metals miners still remain constructive, technically, for a rally at least and a major bottom at best.

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January 8, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity

What Has Been

A solid 2.5 years of risk management (to varying degrees) has been required of precious metals investors.  It was most intensely required after the announcement of QE3, when the net commercial short position in silver began a relentless march toward a very bearish alignment in late 2012 and then the HUI Gold Bugs index lost an important support level at around 460.  Here is the chart of silver with a heavy commercial net short position from NFTRH 215, dated 12.2.12:

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January 7, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update: Euro & Emerging Market Trades

For anyone interested (and I continue to harp on the idea that most probably should not be, since NFTRH is a macro market manager, not a day trader service), here is a look at a couple of markets on which I have taken bearish positions.

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January 6, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update: Precious Metals; More Clues

Earlier in the week we noted the hard down and reversal in the precious metals as an indication to keep an interested eye on.  We also noted that we’d want to see Thursday and Friday follow-on, preferably on volume.  Yesterday added to the bull case as follows:

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January 3, 2014