Yearly Archives: 2014

NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; BBRY

BBRY is a turnaround play, pure and simple.  John Chen is at the helm and has a tough job ahead of him in re-branding this company from device maker to ‘internet of things’ software developer.

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August 18, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Silver’s Daily Chart Parameter

We’ll keep it simple in managing this morning’s decline.  The silver support zone has been 19.50 to 19.75 (chart from NFTRH 300 below).  The lower end of this range is getting tested this morning.  Any lower than that and the situation becomes abnormal to a short-term bottoming view.  A hold of that area ups the aggravation level but would probably be ultimately constructive.

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August 15, 2014
Notable Public Posts

HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts

Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.

Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention.  Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs?  No.  We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.

While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.

HUI Gold Bugs Index

hui

First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013.  They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation.

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August 15, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Gold Ratios & Implications

The real or asset adjusted price of gold continues to make positive progress in several areas.  Below we update gold ETF GLD vs. a few other asset classes, primarily commodities, which makes up the ‘real’ price of gold and the big picture macro plan per the top pane of this chart.  If Au-CCI remains strong, the S&P 500 (lower panel) would be expected to weaken again at some point.

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August 14, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; SPY Short Setup & Parameters

The market bounce is providing a potential opportunity for those who care to, to re-short.  As you may know I covered a short on SPY on the recent decline and have been looking to re-enter it.  The S&P 500 bounce target has been 1950 to 1960, but let’s refine the situation for the SPY.

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August 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; HUI Weekly Chart Perspective

HUI continues to make good progress but until the red neckline is crossed it remains in the same positive, but unconfirmed stance with regard to a new rally leg.  The red dotted neckline is part of a downtrend channel just as the green dotted neckline is part of an uptrend channel.

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August 8, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; GDX and GDXJ

While the two charts below do not technically show a correction that is over, I have released the remaining hedges I had (via DUST) and am planning to use cash levels for any remaining risk management.  This is just an FYI for anyone who is interested and I continue to suggest people go with the style they are most comfortable with, whether it be accumulate slowly on corrections, regulate cash levels, hedging or simply holding positions.

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August 6, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Macro Review & Gold Stocks

The headlines are talking about markets being down on Fed rate policy fears due to employment cost increases, declining consumer confidence, Argentina this and European deflation that.  In other words, the headlines are coming out with reasons why a market that was heavy to begin with is down hard a day after the Fed rolled over and committed to its ongoing inflation.  They always need a story.

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July 31, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Is Gary Shilling?

Sorry, I could not resist the title.  Gary Shilling, an economist whose name I have heard over the years, has quite a body of work often revolving around Fed policy, GDP and deflation.  The reason I looked into Mr. Shilling is an email from an NFTRH subscriber linking his thoughts on a coming boom…

The Boom is Coming, and Sooner Than You Think (July 18, 2014)

Okay, an economist and Bloomberg columnist thinks this is a boom (actually it is; we are after all in the age of Inflation onDemand © and a Boom/Bust cycle; currently in a cyclical boom concentrated in stocks).  Let’s see what he thinks…

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July 31, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Key ETF Charts

A slightly abbreviated Key ETF segment due to ongoing time commitments over the mid summer weeks.  Just a snapshot in time, picking up where we last left these charts a few weeks ago…

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July 30, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?

[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301’s opening segment.  Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article) feel free to just skip the article.  You will not get what you are looking for.  The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]

[edit 2] Based on reader feedback from another site, it appears I do not understand inflation, nor that gold’s purchasing power is superior to that of the USD over the long term.  What I take from this is that if you post anything positive (like USD’s ‘price’ potential) about the buck and/or negative (like gold’s price vulnerabilities) about gold certain handbook carrying people in the gold ‘community’ are going to lash out first, and read/consider second.  In other words SSDD.

Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).

usd.daily

This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.

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July 29, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; GDXJ, GDX & SIL Updated

Well they sure don’t make it easy to get a hard read on things in the very short-term, but one thing we should remember is that this correction is the last correction I expect before a consistent drive upward begins, assuming that either a hard rally or bull market are in the near future.  That is due to the symmetry of the weekly bottoming pattern, which will be reviewed in this weekend’s report.

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July 25, 2014