NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A snapshot of current daily technicals…

GLD is at the first resistance level that began at the equivalent of 1180 for gold (currently 1196).  This resistance area was the long-term breakdown platform.  It is very important to maintaining the bear or giving the bull some breathing room.

gld

SLV remains firmly locked in a bear trend in its bear market, but bouncing.

slv

GDX is at the objective (20) per the 60 min. chart we reviewed last week in gauging a potential bounce.  Still just a bounce, technically.

gdx

SIL made a strong move toward the SMA 50.  This is interesting considering silver’s ongoing relative weakness (next chart).

sil

SLV vs. GLD was over bought during the summer Ukraine hype and over sold into October.  From there it has been a candidate to bounce but other than one big reversal candle has not dented the short-term downtrend.

slv.gld

GLD vs. USO continues to improve as a signal for gold mining fundamentals.

gld.uso

GLD vs. DBC has turned back up and this is supportive of our big picture macro view that would signal global economic deceleration and a positive (counter cyclical) environment for the gold sector.

gld.dbc

DBC is going nowhere apparently until crude oil goes somewhere.

dbc

USO is locked in its downtrend apparently toward our target of WTI Crude at 70.

uso

UNG bounced at support and now encounters resistance.  A break above the SMA 200 would set an uptrend.

ung

DBB is still below resistance and the the SMA 50 and thus, not bullish.

dbb

DBA is still within the pattern we drew up but got above and sagged below the SMA 50.  That is a key comfort level for projecting a possible new trend in DBA.

dba

URA is dwelling at resistance after the Japan Nuke news.  15 (SMA 200) could ultimately decide whether there is going to be a new trend here.

ura

COPX broke a trend line… and remains in a serious bear trend.

copx

TLT is still curving above the SMA 50.  If risk stays ‘ON’ in the stock market, TLT could be pressured.  If not, the opposite.

tlt

TIP-TLT shows no inflation expectations pressure in the Treasury market.

tip.tlt

HYG-TLT is still weak and is an ongoing negative negative divergence to risk ‘ON’ and a the stock market.

hyg.tlt

SPY just keeps on rising until it sucks in every last hold out I presume.

spy

QQQ does too.

qqq

IWM shows the ongoing negative Small Cap divergence.  Fun fact: Small Caps diverged the bull market from 1994 to the 2000 secular top.

iwm

SMH is still at important resistance, and threatening it.

smh

EZU blew up the little rounding top in a convincing way yesterday.

ezu

EWG did too and thus my interest in Germany is still there.

ewg

EWP represents the PIIGS and shows some relative weakness.

ewp

EWC is still technically dealing with the moving average resistance, but boinked a higher high to October yesterday.  If this resistance is exceeded, the target is back near the highs off the interesting pattern.

ewc

EEM is still bearish below 42.  If that is a bullish pattern of some sort it needs to get going.

eem

FXI did the opposite of EZU and EWG.  It broke down from a bullish pattern and is now bearish below the SMA 50.  I still hold it but am none too pleased with this.

fxi

FXE snuck above the first line of resistance off of positive divergence by MACD/RSI.

fxe

FXY  continues to be annihilated.

fxy

UUP is sagging with negative momentum divergence but still above the EMA 10 and the first level of support.

uup

Bottom Line

Precious Metals:  It is a bounce.  When it becomes something more I will be glad to call it that since I am a precious metals bull on the big picture view.  Meanwhile, we noted the potential for a bounce and darned if it isn’t here… and near/at targets.  Keep an eye on the under performing silver vs. the very bouncy silver miners.

Commodities:  Still generally disinterested as some shows signs of life and others just keep going down.  We’d want to see inflationary issues crop up to be interested in commodities.

Stock Markets:  US keeps rising… despite over bullish sentiment, negative divergence in Bond spreads and fading participation indexes.  The healthy thing would be the interim correction/October re-test scenario.  What does this market care about ‘healthy’?

Global is a mixed bag as Europe goes up off bearish patterns and China 25 goes down off of what looked like a bullish one.  EM’s are suspect and Canada looks pretty good.

Currency:  UUP bullish but S/T wobbly.  FXE bearish but looking to bounce.  Yen destroyed and commodity currencies (not shown) are bearish but bouncing just a bit.