From reader MM today…
“Very interesting recent note on gold & silver. (I’m not a subscriber, by the way). Especially the two specially selected advisors whose advice you ‘fade’. I don’t often track gold & silver any longer but I do remember that at the end of October 2008 you and Bob Hoye were the only two advisors who were bullish. That was ideal, a couple of voices crying in the wilderness. I don’t know why you don’t trumpet that more, unless you didn’t profit as handsomely from that opportunity as you might have. As you suggested recently the time might be approaching to be alert for the next big upside entry in the metals”
He is of course referencing the Gold Bug Psych article.
To answer, yes I profited handsomely because I had the balls to follow the analysis, which saw unbelievable fundamentals (the real ones, not the ones the promoters tout constantly), unbelievable values and an unbelievable psych/sentiment backdrop. Further I kept those gains to this day through sound risk management.
The reason I don’t tout vigorously is because I look over there and I see the guy who basically invented the investment case for Lithium, Uranium and junior gold stocks (in his own mind) still looking debonaire in profile pictures and still touting away, appealing to peoples’ greed instincts… ‘this junior went up 70% after I picked it for my subscribers blah blah blah’. I hate that crap.
I look this way, that way and the other and still see carnival barkers, perhaps dressing up their acts a bit, but still pushing what is really important to them, subscriber acquisition beyond all else.
Don’t get me wrong, I want everybody to sign up for NFTRH because it is flat out the best all around market management service out there. But it will not tell people what they want to hear until it is time for them to hear it. And that folks, is a harder and slower sell because by the time they are ready to hear it they will be wanting to hear something totally different. That is just how the majority works and it is the paradox of a true contrarian orientation.*
But mark my words, when the analysis is proven correct through all the bullshit of the last several years, to answer the reader’s question, I am going to trumpet. In the meantime I am simply going to say that reading my own work helps me as an investor and trader. I value it because I know it is rooted in the work that needs to be done for long-term success and it tunes out all the bozos in the major and minor media.
* Otto at IKN had some thoughts this weekend in IKN 287 about what it means – if anything substantive these days – to call yourself contrarian. This, being rooted in psychology, is naturally an interesting subject to me and I want to do some writing about it later this week as well. I’ll probably post it at Biiwii since it will be commentary as opposed to nuts and bolts type stuff.
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