NFTRH Update 9.9.13, Yield Spread Update

With reference to yesterday’s bigger picture look at the yield curves, here is a daily view of the 30 year yield vs. the 5 year.

tyx.fvx

The spread made a lower low and is bouncing from a positive RSI divergence.  Others (30-10, 10-5, etc.) are doing the same.

A big difference I neglected to mention in that update is that last year as the curves declined (crushing gold), nominal interest rates were generally declining across the board.  This time they are of course rising and that could be an important difference because they are all rising hard against the ZIRP-pinned T bill rate.

You might consider these updates as lower priority notes to myself as I try to find the elements to a sensible narrative about the macro picture.