Technical Status: Gold, Silver & Much More…

In response to a subscriber’s request, I am pleased to announce the addition of a simple yet helpful new aspect to the NFTRH service that will be of value to subscribers and potential subscribers who do not always have the time or inclination to wade through the  whole detailed NFTRH report each week.

The NFTRH service will now include clear, uncluttered charts (as follows) focused on a daily time frame for strategic ETF’s.  This is an addition (at no extra charge) to the already well rounded service that includes the detailed weekend letter and interim email/website updates during the week.

We now provide handy and unbiased short to intermediate technical signals for gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold stocks (GDX), silver stocks (SIL), commodities (DBC), broad US markets (SPY),  Europe (EZU), emerging markets (EEM) and China (FXI).  ETF content is subject to change as their strategic value changes.

This singular aspect of the new NFTRH represents a clearly defined focus on my most basic management tool and capability, i.e. nominal technical analysis simply portrayed with a clear and concise message that is free of detailed theoretical and opinion content.

In the interest of simplicity there will be little talk of support, resistance, volume and measured objectives in this segment of the service.  In short, all we want to know with these charts is ‘are they on bull, bear or neutral signals?’  Very mechanical, very unbiased.

On to our first (complimentary) daily technical report…


GLD is on a bear signal with MACD triggered down, below zero and price below a short term downtrend line and the 50 day moving averages.

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Raghuram Rajan’s Sneaking Out the Door (Raises Interest Rates)

The economist who predicted the financial crisis just sounded another alarm—it would be wise to listen this time

A good article (thanks Tom) about a good man trying to get out ahead of a rising interest rate world; India’s head of the RBI, who is raising interest rates while the US Fed keeps things stable for the rest of the world to start deleveraging.  Is this really what is in play, a world setting up to clean up its debts and inflationary excesses?

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Send in the Clowns

Last week the Fed treated us to a whipsaw as market perceptions apparently were not in line with the FOMC policy statement, which was basically a punt.  Then the very next day the Fed’s James Bullard  jawboned the media about a possible October Federal Reserve tapering.  Hence, a letter writer was left with images of a 3 ring circus heading into the weekend.  From the opening segment of the September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:

Last week’s opening title was ‘Get Ready for a Climax to the ‘Taper’ Hype’ and boy did it ever climax.  The FOMC rolled over and the market over reacted.  Everybody it seems (bears, bulls, inflationists, deflationists, gold bugs; everybody) was punished at one point or another.  James Bullard even had the nerve to get in front of a microphone and exercise his jawbone about a possible October ‘taper’ and the anti-climax was on.

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The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible.  It’s  the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making.  5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)?  Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.

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NFTRH Update, Precious Metals & ‘Inflation Trade’ After Fed Roll Over

Here is what the US Fed did to the currency it is supposedly a steward of yesterday.  The USD plunged below an important support level.  If this breakdown holds below 80.50, it measures to the mid-70’s.  Enter an ‘inflation trade’, in which we’d look to fan out from the precious metals and include other commodity and global stock items.

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Gold: “Taper This”

The media love to get a hold of buzz words and then give them a spin and a life all their own.  Recent examples were the mainstream media’s presentation of ‘Operation Twist’ – which was simply an official yield curve manipulation designed to sanitize and dampen inflationary signals – as an inflationary operation, and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ drama that sent herds of conventional investors to the sidelines* when they should have been contrarian (and bullish) back in Q4, 2012.

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NFTRH Update 9.17.13, Precious Metals – Looking Past FOMC

The world expects the FOMC to update its expectations regarding a tapering of Treasury bond asset purchases tomorrow.  The world thinks that a tapering of these purchases would be bad for gold.

I think a decrease in T bond purchases would be anything from neutral to a potential positive (see post coming later today on the matter).  Regardless, it is time to be looking out beyond FOMC with regard to the precious metals, a most sensitive sector to monetary policy.

So here is a check list of what we want to see in order to press the bull stance.

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NFTRH Update, Precious Metals Correction Status

The precious metals are getting sold hard in the face of whatever ‘feel good’ thing is going on with some ‘US may not invade Syria after all’ hype.  Whatever, it is a correction and it was in the cards since over bought silver led the precious metals sector into a furious pop and reversal a couple of weeks ago.  Hype and momentum are always punished. … Continue reading NFTRH Update, Precious Metals Correction Status