NFTRH Update 8.6.13, Gold, Silver & HUI Updated

Gold fund GLD is losing the equivalent of the 1300 support level we noted as important.

gld

SLV is losing an equivalent support level, although above the recent low of last Wednesday (blue arrow).

slv

HUI is losing an equivalent support level as well.

hui

If there is a positive to what is happening it is that the broad market is getting hit as well.  Of course the market cannot have all this economic growth stuff and other seemingly healthy things in play because that brings out Mssrs. Fisher and Lockhart with the taper talk again.

The market knows what created it and it apparently knows what would undo it if it were withdrawn.  Policy makers have no choice in the matter.  Interest rates are rising, to this point anyway.  They are boxed into a taper scenario as long as that is the case.

The precious metals are disappointing, but it will not be disappointing in the least, to me at least, if the bottom callers, hyper inflationists and various other gold bugs are flushed before a recovery gets started.  Keep in mind economic contraction, not expansion (with associated inflation) is important for the gold sector.

There will be more definition coming, but today I just wanted to make a technical note that the precious metals complex is threatening to lose short-term support.  This could reverse, but the precious metals are not a savior, they are a tool and this tool will only be ready when the macro is ready.  Tune out the cheerleaders and watch the support levels above.

The precious metals should eventually get opposite the broad market.

[edit]  Adding a chart of the silver-gold ratio (SLV-GLD), which is holding up and resisting new lows.  This is a minor positive divergence and would become an important positive divergence if silver continues its out performance.

slv.gld