The HUI has clear parameters per the daily chart.
While still above the now upturning EMA’s 10 & 20, it is fine. If it were to drop below these averages it would be much less fine, although there is a gap just above 260 that could be filled. 260 remains the limit on my personal level of risk tolerance.
Other aspects of the chart are the bullish divergence by MACD and RSI, along with the support just below 50 noted on RSI. Finally, the daily is still in a downtrend by AROON. When/if this crosses to up (0+) it would be another bullish factor.
The base metals index, which we have been watching in NFTRH for the last couple of weeks has gone AROON trend up (green) and now made a higher high. The pattern targets the 200 day simple moving average.
A bullish base metals picture does not square with a bearish economic (see yesterday’s ISM contraction for example) and stock market picture. But it does square with our developing ‘carry trade’ scenario under which signs of inflationary economic growth could emerge later in the year.
Yet the copper miners ETF is still just hanging around. This is something I would consider for purchase under a ‘rising inflationary expectations’ scenario.
Bottom Line
The signals are mixed. Perhaps the base metals are just on a quick rebound along with broad market relief (junk bonds, stocks, etc. are bouncing along with a hard bounce in Japan). We will know shortly. If Japan and global credit and stock markets somehow fix the recent damage and proceed bullishly, we will need to bring the ‘carry trade’ scenario into view sooner rather than later.
We would also need to evaluate the gold sector, which would not be a (fundamentally) favored one in an inflationary growth scenario. Although the miners have risen strongly in the past under such conditions, it is for the wrong reasons and the miners would be a ‘sell the rally’ in that case.
The next few weeks are important for many markets. Confirmations or failures should be coming along soon. Right now, my plan remains to not step too far in any one direction until the situation clears.
