No folks, I am not a day trader! :-)
But that does not preclude me from dialing in to short-term views, and a short-term view I found interesting was in GDX and GDXJ. When seeing the predictable pullback today my first thought was ‘typical… gold stocks can’t even sustain beyond a day or two’. My second thought was ‘let me look at some charts’ and so…
Did you catch that close on the gold stocks? It is no wonder so many people lose their minds with this sector. 1 minute chart... I wouldn't blame the evil…
A snapshot of the current technical status of several key markets (a lot of charts today because macro changes seem to be in effect)…
GLD broke down from the Sym-Tri (strike 1), lost the June low (strike 2) and now would try to find support at the December low, equiv. to gold 1180. Over sold, prone to bounce but technically bearish below 120 and 123.
A snapshot of current technicals for key markets…
GLD became very bearish with the breakdown from 124. A rise above 123 is needed to even begin to repair this chart.
A snapshot of the current technical status of key ETFs…
GLD filled gap, which now closes out the geopolitical hype and leaves gold on its own right at key support. Still not a constructive looking chart. A rise above the SMA 200 and then the 50 makes it constructive.
While the two charts below do not technically show a correction that is over, I have released the remaining hedges I had (via DUST) and am planning to use cash levels for any remaining risk management. This is just an FYI for anyone who is interested and I continue to suggest people go with the style they are most comfortable with, whether it be accumulate slowly on corrections, regulate cash levels, hedging or simply holding positions.
A slightly abbreviated Key ETF segment due to ongoing time commitments over the mid summer weeks. Just a snapshot in time, picking up where we last left these charts a few weeks ago…
Well they sure don’t make it easy to get a hard read on things in the very short-term, but one thing we should remember is that this correction is the last correction I expect before a consistent drive upward begins, assuming that either a hard rally or bull market are in the near future. That is due to the symmetry of the weekly bottoming pattern, which will be reviewed in this weekend’s report.
Finally, we have seen the obvious (what most people will now take note of) kickoff to a short-term correction in the precious metals. Depending on the fundamental picture, we can plan on taking advantage of a buying opportunity as we have been noting over last couple of weeks.
A subscriber requested a view of the GDX for his personal management. So I thought I would throw it up here as an update. Today is bounce day (at RSI support), but GDX has not even retraced 38% of the rally. The 62% retrace at 24+ is the favored target for a decent correction that would flush some bugs.
A brief update to note HUI is now approaching the resistance level of 245 to 250 that we have been noting.
A snapshot of the current daily chart technical status of several ETFs…
GLD is bullish but in the equivalent resistance zone as noted for gold in NFTRH 296. MACD and RSI positive, with RSI close to over bought. Key support is at the MA 50 and 200.
From Bloomberg:
“U.S. stocks retreated, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling a third day, as airline stocks tumbled after escalating violence in Iraq pushed oil prices higher while data on retail sales and jobs missed estimates.”
Key ETF charts are a snapshot to current technicals, not comprehensive technical analysis.
GLD bumped above the lower end of resistance yesterday and is support for any continuing S/T rally activity. The big test is in the 123 to 125 area and the nose of the former Symmetrical Triangle.