Today is notable because the economic data continue to decelerate (Durable Goods declined and Caterpillar layoff announcement), the stock market is doing what we expected and the gold sector is…
The US Stock market is generally in a downtrend by daily and weekly charts. This means that the trend is down in all but the monthly time frame. The monthly…
The Fed rolled over again, which was not surprising given global economic slowing, global monetary easing and a would-be firm US dollar's continued negative impact on US exporters and manufacturing. …
With the preamble that cash is the best position as risk rises (which it is doing as the market bounce continues and VIX sinks further) and that the FOMC is…
Just for perspective, ref. Michael Ashton’s post about the CPI and inflation. He is a specialist in inflation-sensitive investments and makes the interpretation of inflation and inflation expectations his business.
The FOMC is meeting tomorrow and it is always risky to speak in definites when such a potentially market roiling event (one way or the other) is in play. But a few things are happening in inflation sensitive markets that should be watched.
First, as we noted in an NFTRH+ update yesterday, Treasury yields are rising. Here is the 10 year in a bullish looking pattern.
With interest rates bouncing across the curve (beyond the Fed-controlled T Bill yield) per the projection of a previous NFTRH+ update (with a lag), I took a look at the logical beneficiary of rising yields, the Bank sector.
We have been watching the Semiconductor index re-take some of its past leadership in the broad US market. Hence, some favored Semi stocks are back on radar, for the short-term…
While the stock market does its wax on, wax off, wax on routine, two anxiety indicators continue to flag in consolidation. They are consistent, orderly and as long as they are flagging the market is probably okay. But these are still bullish looking consolidations.
Just trying to give you data points that I think are relevant as they crop up…
In NFTRH 359 we put a lot of effort into looking ahead to a time when the Gold-Silver ratio (GSR) may find heavy overhead resistance. That time could be a signal on the next inflation trade as the more inflation-sensitive silver out performs gold.
Just a short FYI update. VIX, touched the top end of the 20 to 22 pullback target zone. This was accompanied by a bounce in the S&P 500 to 1988 and subsequent fade (+.23% at 1973.88 at time of writing).
We were roughly looking for SPX 2040 and VIX 20-22 as a potential bearish setup. VIX hit 21.51 earlier today.
Yesterday the S&P 500 closed once again within the range we have been watching, that includes the upside (1993.48) and downside (1903.07) parameters to a test of what we have called ‘Resistance #2’ at 2040 (Resistance #1 was 1975, which SPX is still dealing with on its bounce attempt).
A simple progress report on SPY's bounce. The initial rally today put SPY back above the resistance line roughly equivalent to SPX 1975, which was Resistance #1 to the bounce…
So far the correction is generally going to plan. SPX dropped out of the nose of the Diamond pattern, lost both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and dropped to support. That was all according to plans.
Stock Market Here is the current SPY chart from this morning's pre-market update, on which I had drawn a candle based on the pre-market's projection. SPY opened around that level…