This began as an NFTRH+ subscriber update, but by the end I decided it was more appropriate as a public post. I am not giving away trade secrets here (NFTRH’s secret sauce, if you will). Rather, I am illustrating some points I’ve made publicly many times. Some of my core beliefs and modes of operation.
What I like about MacroMicro is that it puts into charts many of the themes in NFTRH analysis. Or more accurately, it produces charts that confirm or refute our macro themes. In this case, one handy chart that came along with my morning reading appears to confirm a bullish global view for the back half of 2026.
This. is. actually. happening. Global growth and earnings revisions are ramping upward.
The reason I write that is to illustrate something I think is of the utmost importance, and is core to NFTRH modus operandi. Ray Dalio made a post on Substack about how we are “past the point of no return”, and got absolutely lit up in the comments for, in essence, being a perma-bear. Which he is, in my opinion. Very intelligent, well spoken and also… right! But it’s that “perma” thing that is the issue.
I responded to one of his critics thusly:
Two things can be true at once. 1) The system runs on its ability to increase, manipulate and leverage debt, and 2) The system will implode when it is good and ready, not when identified by people who understand its mechanics.
That is why it is damaging to broadcast doom strenuously. Because fear is a strong emotion and people are motivated by it. Hence, when the system denies its rotten underpinnings for years and decades, many miss out (at best) or get blown up (at worst) along the way.
I am certainly not advocating being an ignorant bubble participant. But with all due risk management along the way, I am advocating not missing out on the best plays of the bubble macro.
So again, global growth is actually happening. It – including the US, of course – is indeed underpinned by unsustainable debt creation activities. It will end badly one day.
So I also advocate watching the (US and global) markets’ internal rotation probabilities (e.g. commodities, precious metals and EM). But also gold, the one stable asset (IMO), and profit-taking/cash reserves for re-deploying per the markets’ rotations. Oh, and shorting is a thing. An often disappointing thing, but as pressures do build up (current thinking is that sometime after the mid-terms some air will come out of this mess).
But until then, the view (by Gary the perma-bear in long-term market underpinnings, but bull as indicated along the way) is bullish. I want to participate, with all due risk management. I can envision a situation where silver leads gold and they lead a significant commodity trade while “they” keep the stock market going just fine to and possibly through November.
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