Brief updates on the US stock market, commodities and precious metals:
US Stock Market
SPY is attempting to re-take the 50 day average, QQQ is still below the SMA 50 and resistance, but testing them and SMH is ticking new highs.
Our bias is for a bullish run in 2026 due to a government/Fed combo liquidity boost. Software may or may not be bottoming. I have a few of these bombed out items that I think were unfairly swept up in the negative AI hype.
As per an NFTRH+ update on Materials company CBT, the strategy is for a diversification in 2026 as the market rotates.
Commodity Related
This of course includes commodity/resources-related stocks from energy (incl. uranium) to critical minerals. There is little about the state of the geopolitical world that indicates anything other than bullish for commodities in general, and especially the contentious critical minerals.
Precious Metals
It looks like I may be about to be indicated WRONG in my original view of a deeper, longer correction as GDX looks to open above the 108-110 (currently 112.50 in pre) upside bounce target. If that turns out to be the case, I am okay with that, * as I’ve held key positions and even added a couple. But if 2026 goes the way I expect, the PMs would not be the exclusive leading stars they were in 2025.
That notion is still open to interpretation, incoming data and possible revision. Either way, it’s a major bull market nominally, and in relation to stocks.
We have had a “watch silver” priority of late, and silver is up again this morning with a lot of potential upside real estate, as noted last week and in yesterday’s update. Importantly, the Silver/Gold ratio is also up while USD holds above support but below its 50 day average, within its downtrend.
Bottom Line
The software mini crash may have been the stock market “correction” as Semi (SMH/SOX) continues to lead, SPX (SPY) grapples with its SMA 50 and NDX (QQQ) meets resistance. If the latter takes out resistance here at 610.50 and the SMA 50 (616) we’d prepare for the 2026 bull festivities across a well diversified group of sectors. Meanwhile, the view has been that an interim correction is still viable (Semi argues “no!”).
Commodities are bullish biased and many of the 2025 stars could be on the verge of recovery after a hard pullback. Looking at the charts of UEC and SRUUF, I think uranium, for one, is ready. I also have UUUU very much on watch. But the Lithiums, REE and coppers are also bullish, with REE having had strong pullbacks.
Precious metals are in a major bull market. The corrections in gold and silver were notable, but the gold miners, which we’ve noted never broke trend vs. gold (HUI/Gold, GDX/Gold ratios) have hung tough and so far only taken the minimum pullback. I guess old Turkey may come into play: “It’s a bull market, you know.”
If the above remains intact for commodities and precious metals, and if government/Fed liquidity operations succeed, 2026 could be another bullish year, with the bullishness fanning out to more areas (hence, diversification).
* Much though I’d like and try, I will never nail things 100%. But you knew that already.
