Well, it is certainly not a grind. It’s a series of down and up elevators for silver. Because of course it is for gold’s wild little bro. In this update I also want to look at the TSX-V along with its relationship to the senior TSX index. We’ve made a lot of downside progress, folks (Captain Obvious).
Here is a comment at the end of yesterday’s update:
And here is what silver did last night.
A low of 64.10, and a current price of 75.95. Doink, there’s the 68-72 range in the books. Doesn’t mean it has to rally now, but that is excellent work. A deep plunge below visual support and as of now, reversal upward.
I also want to note that the TSX-V index has satisfied its initial downside objective for this move as well, landing squarely on visual support. As with silver and other items across the precious metals and strategic commodity space, there is an open question about whether deeper corrections will ensue later, to the rising 200 day moving averages (orange).
Da ‘V’ in ratio to its daddy has also landed on a logical support area.
Bottom Line
If we are going to get an interim rally in the precious metals and strategic commodity space, these sectors have landed at (and in silver’s case impaled) the relevant support levels. If we do rally, it should be quite tradable, but it would be best to assume it will fail before signaling a new bull market leg. I’ll be glad to be wrong about that, but for safety sake that’s how I’m viewing it.
As for gold stocks, GDX has not yet dropped to the lower support areas noted in yesterday’s update. If the complex is going to rally, it would be a sign of relative strength as the GDX/Gold and HUI/Gold ratios have remained intact to their uptrends. Oh, and there is the little nugget of earnings season upon us.
I am prepared to be bullish on the precious metals, strategic commodities and certain aspects of the broad market (especially software related, which has gotten killed with the AI hype). But let’s see how the day unfolds. No assumptions set in cement.
I Gary , I subscribe to an other Gary ( Savage) not to name it , he is telling his subs to hang on on calls because he sees silver at 130 at the end of march ,many had already left humdreds thowsands dollars on the table since the plunge ,what do you think of this , that s why I switch on your new subs to exit fantasy island.
Hi Jonhny, welcome. I think silver is going to take a significant rally. But I also think that 121/oz. was a blow out high that will be in place for a long while. Longer probably than many peoples’ call expiration dates.