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Down the rabbit hole (again)

NFTRH is a service that does not perceive itself to be paid to promote conspiracies or anything other than getting the macro situation and the financial/asset markets within it right during any given phase. My mission, my job is to use my indicators and research to provide a clear view of the probabilities here in the conventional world.

However, Notes From the Rabbit Hole was so named because of the scary Wonderland I perceived the world to be over two decades ago. While the service was not launched until 2008, I began publicly writing in 2004 and was originally activated by a few strange characters (and one in particular) I used to interact with, and in some regards learn from, back in 2002-2004.

I’ve told that story before. It started to feel cult-like so I got the fuck out of there.

While making sound financial considerations, if you catch my drift, back then I also…

• Installed wood stoves in our home (home sold)
• Bought a 9mm semi-automatic (licensed and up to date)
• Installed a whole home generator (home sold)
• Bought a shit load of long-term (20yr) food supply (expired)
• Got really concerned about where society and America were heading

As to that last item, it feels more acute now. And I wonder if some of what I was alarmed about back in ’02-’04 might be more viable now that the downward trend (“Continuum”) in Treasury yields is broken and the macro has changed radically. Since 2022 I’ve been trying to determine as best I can the meaning and implications of that now broken trend in the interest attached to U.S. debt.

One implication could be that things forestalled by that calm monetary signaling are no longer forestalled. Maybe they are back in gear.

This post was triggered by a comment to the previous article about gold. The commenter asked about my view on the potential for gold confiscation. I feel I somewhat dismissively flipped him an answer. Upon reflection, I wonder why Trump and Musk made such loud grandstanding about auditing Fort Knox back in the spring and then STFU about it. Maybe TreasSec Bessent has an opinion on this.

I saw theorized somewhere a scary thought like ‘what if there’s no gold or it’s been rehypothecated right out of those vaults?’ That is, to me, pure conspiracy theorizing. Rehypothecation is something that brokers do to their clients who have margin accounts (it’s the reason I only have a small margin account for trading with the vast majority of funds in non-margin accounts).

How do you rehypothecate tons upon tons of gold? Maybe he did not mean “rehypothication” literally? Why would the U.S. lease out its gold when all it has to do is print more money at any given time to meet its spending goals? I think it is highly improbable that there is no gold left, or that any large portion of it is gone. But WTFDIK, actually? I don’t like that Trump STFU about it after making such a ruckus.

The theorist used Jim Rickards (lower right corner of my home made meme) as the source of the conspiracy. Heretofore Rickards is someone I poke fun at. These guys have had a trend of wrongness now into its 3rd decade. But still, I have proven to be someone susceptible to conspiracy theories in the past and with the state of things today, I still am. Oh, and there is that broken trend in the former “Continuum”.

I guess what I am saying is that with gold still much lower than I think it is ultimately going, the indication is that something is very wrong in society and its financial system. I don’t want to be too dismissive about that.