05/12/25 Update: ‘Genius’ one day, clown the next. View remains unchanged and why there is time open on the view. Note the risk of my perception that it is late stage (potential wave 5 of some degree and my time cycle view of June 2025) as well as the surge and deep overlapping pullbacks characteristic of ending diagonals.
In contrast to the first two trial ideas posted in the NFTRH++ section ($HBM — open, $HDSN — 200dg example), my trade setups in $GDX are different in almost every way. I have a lot of views on the gold stonk arena or what I affectionately refer to as #PRM (“Pet Rock Miners”). I’ve ‘invested’, traded, won and lost, and bought into this that and the other beliefs of goldbuggery land which includes the squeezers and stackers of the red headed stepchild silver, which I lovingly call ‘hi-ho’. A frustrating sector no doubt, and again, folks have their own views on what drives the pet rock, hi-ho, and the miners, developers and explorers in this sector.
While I have done a fair amount of fundermental work on a dozen or so names throughout the years, I have also studied cyclists, Elliott Wave, DeMark, Bressert, and various market timing methodologies. I’ve come up with my own trading methodology that combines EW and various time cycles in an attempt to market time my bullish or bearish views over various time horizons. I summarize it as “Trading Time and Taking Price”. I think there are so many ways to slice and dice the space but I do believe there are rhythms to the miners. A bunch of rolling sine waves on various time frames. And, if and when, enough time frames align to a time window of interest and ‘PRICE’ is compelling towards a view, whether it be bullish or bearish, I will attempt to trade it accordingly.
While conventional NFTRH++ chart set ups will have an element of sexiness to them, the GDX setups may look as appealing as a White Castle slider left out on the conference room table over the summer weekend with the AC turned off. In other words, I’m more apt to look for time windows to buy ‘lows’ of some degree and trim and exit on breakouts or divergent highs. I trade the ugly when it comes to GDX, itself an amalgamation of companies that many folks truly hate.
Current View:
In my view, the PRMs signalled bullish in March/April 2024 when long term cycles triggered. Since then we’ve had a number of moves up and down, but mostly taking on the shape of higher highs and higher lows, seemingly confirming a ‘bull’ market. I studied EW for a few years, and I’m no Elliottician and I don’t believe in all of it or even a lot of it (in time I can expound on what I do like about EW). My view is that the current structure has room for one more ‘impulse’ or higher high to complete the waves from the September 2022 and October 2023 lows. My ‘count’ is that we have the potential for one last thrusty to count as a wave 5 of wave 3 of some degree, and this fits well with my view of a major cycle window incoming end of May 2025 to late June 2025. I’ve long held the view that this time window would look best as a ‘High’. I am long, but this isn’t as attractive as other spots in time (both at those moments in time and obviously in hindsight) as we might be in a 5th wave and we’re within a month of that cycle window arriving and passing.
GDX $49 area is an interesting level to hold for a short term low. A rise through the most recent high of $51.39 (pre mkt) would provide a ‘measured move’ target of around $2+ which lands at the ~$53 top. Going back to the prior low just under $47 and comparing to the higher high at $53.25 equates to a $6 measured move range that would target just over $59. I’ve had $51-59 as a target based on wave sizes and various measured move objectives. Provided this unfolds, I expect the final few thrusts to take the shape of diagonals (which are ‘abc’ structures and often have ‘c’ = ‘a’ measured moves) with big thrusts and deep pulls to overlap with prior highs, before trying to bust higher again. This is late stage for this cycle in my opinion. Watching for $2 moves to and through the last two highs at ~$51 and $53 to trigger follow through towards the upper rungs of the $51-59 target range.
I have various long call positions in etfs and single stock gold miners to reflect this view. I trade very actively in this space and trying to capture all the ins/outs is impractical. The time horizon for this trade is roughly a month + with early June being the energy center for a number of cycles.
NFTRH++ trade setup ideas are presented for consideration and further research only, not as recommendations. I am not an investment adviser and these are trade ideas for each to consider on their own.
Hi Joe Hammer,
Thanks for your well-reasoned post on GDX price prospects.
Today, Sunday May 11 2025, I wonder how to treat my PM position to-morrow morning.
What do other experts advise? Adam Hamilton agrees with you on the (bearish) “major cycle window” likely to appear by end-June, but implicitly estimates chances of a final upward thrust now in the current cycle, with GDX pushing into the $51 -59 range, too low (other than with his few remaining positions protected by a trailing stop-loss). Jack Chan’s portfolio currently holds no PMs (and he is bullish on the US dollar). The Aden Sisters implicitly agree with you over both time frames, but without numerical wave analysis: they chart an upcoming quite severe decline, likely during the summer doldrums; short-term they advise to stay the course, Old Turkey-wise, implicitly judging that a price drop even to $ 46.9 might indeed trigger a target possibly up to $ 59.
All the best
I know you didn’t ask for advice, but I want to caveat my response with I do not give investment/trading advice as I prefer to outline my view and how I’m positioned to capitalize on it. I will also refrain from comments about what others are advising or doing in their respective portfolios. While in years past I would let others’ views impact (drive even) my decision making, that is no longer the case as I try to shield myself as much as possible so that I trade the miners my way. I win and lose on my process.
I have sketches as to how I think the longer time frame cycles might play out, but I have a hard time holding positions to capture these moves. Some of this impatience relates to the most recent fill in the blank number of years being disappointed by gold miner stock performance. Admittedly this has changed of late and while I do have a view that we are in a longer term bull market, I can’t shake the memories of the 20% or more violent pullbacks that occur regularly that can take away many months of gains lickety split. Ergo, I find myself trying to trade the two shorter cycles, one month and seven weeks, and taking into account that each of these are puzzle pieces that when put together solve the intermediate and long term cycle puzzles.
I’ll reiterate from my post that I think for this particular structure and cycle, it feels late stage and whether it finishes with another high or not, it fits well for a good high of some degree and duration (weeks if not months), with a decent shot at a fast and furious correction subsequently into mid/late summer, before starting another wave higher that ideally would land in the Halloween/Turkey Day monthly corridor. The window from mid June to mid July in particular looks ominous or ‘negative energy’ per my read of the long term cycles. If a substantial correction unfolded that fit my time cycle views, I am likely to get bullish on an ugly ‘here we go again, the gold miners suck’ look. I have thoughts on future windows (late Mar-late Apr 2026, and mid Summer 2027), but I hate to go that far out in time for trading purposes.
I expect to be out of all long trading positions in this upcoming June window based on the late stage cycle view.