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If the stock market rallies, what will happen to the precious metals complex and especially gold stocks in the near-term? Well, let’s take a look at recent history.

Using GDX and SPY let’s recall that there had been a nagging issue with respect to gold mining as a uniquely bullish sector. The miners were in positive alignment with the broad rally. Gold stocks as “uniquely bullish” would be when a fully developed fundamental backdrop engages (ref. our Macrocosm, theme and our charts of gold’s ratios to cyclical assets in many NFTRH reports and some public posts). The first stage of that appears to have begun in Q1, 2025.

For much of the broad rally from 2023, gold stocks were not unique. But since 2025 began, they have been uniquely bullish, backed by proper fundamentals, while the stock market took a hard correction. All good right?

Well, yes. However, there is a vulnerability. If the stock market rallies amid the terribly over-bearish sentiment readings (contrary bullish) of late (here let’s reference gold’s consistently high risk profile per Sentimentrader’s readings each week), the precious metals could be vulnerable. Silver is already failing to lead gold and GDX is near its highs of this bull cycle. HUI only ticked 370 and it may or may not reach the 375+ objective. But that tick was a higher high to October 22 high, which is also the case for GDX above.

As a side note, the HUI/Gold ratio is still intact, and this rally leg for nominal HUI and GDX is still intact as well. So I don’t want to freak people out or make a top call. What I want to do is note that if the broad stock market does make good on a further bounce or rally, a pullback in the precious metals would be consistent with that, based on recent inverse history.