As I got rid of my frustrating positions in Corn and Soybeans (ref. trade log), I naturally want to look into another painfully depressed commodity, because why just buy and sell normal stocks that go up a lot when you can experience the unique indignities of the outer reaches of the commodity sector?
As usual, I have my eye on unhedged Gas play AR. But before that, I had my eye on the commodity itself, which is bombed out and near very long-term lows/support, price-wise. However, two indications for the sector show opposite signals.
First the negative, in the form of the average Gas seasonal, which tops right now and stays topped into February. However, the seasonal analog is not much of a concern, since Gas has obviously not followed the pattern at all this year.
As for the internals, commercial hedgers are at an extreme in net long positioning. As with the seasonal above, this does not work like clockwork, but it is a positive contrary sentiment situation within the Gas market.
To boot, the price is in something of an Inverted H&S (potential) bottoming pattern.
Just churning up something for consideration… or not. Whether or not I add AR or other Gas positions will depend on macro factors in the near-term, beyond the above. Primary would be the look of the US dollar, which today is looking none too stellar. Also note that November payrolls is likely to inform the USD situation. A weak number, as I suspect may be the case, could weaken USD and help trades like Gas.
