GDX broke upward from the symmetrical triangle, as anticipated. It also broke the downtrend channel trend line, as anticipated. What it did not do is hit our upside target at the gap just below 40. It may or may not do that any time soon, but it’s up there and in my opinion so are much higher objectives. Later.
Gold stocks have rallies with the happy cyclical stuff. Gold mining is not a happy cyclical industry. It is the opposite, in it best investment case. So they are and have been in tow with the fate of the cyclical stuff for better or worse. A lot has been for better lately, but it is also the reason I have not positioned like I would plan to if the preferred post-bubble macro engages. I have little loyalty to the miners or precious metals in this environment (physical gold is a different story with much more very long-term commitment).
Back to the chart, GDX is dropping back toward the nose of the triangle. That supported the price the last time on a modest pullback. I have a little more doubt this time, if it really is a broader market event of some substance (as opposed to quick shakeout). As with other market areas, I am not prepared to try guessing when cash is paying out and I put a premium on being strong during negative market events. In short, I want to think like a greedy buyer, not a hopeful bull. I also want to have patience.
Watching for a pattern to develop. Possibly even a H&S this time.
Interestingly, RSI is already developing one.