The silver price has been very volatile on the daily chart view. On the larger view it touched clear long-term support on the decline in 2022, which was a higher low to the 2020 tank job low. Thus, while not actively bullish technically, silver is not broken either. It’s much like the gold mining indexes.
The daily chart shows the silver price testing the often-tested support level at the top of the 2022 basing pattern that included that low (shaded). So technically speaking, silver could lose support and test the 2022 low without losing its bigger picture stance. But man that would be unpleasant for fully loaded silver bugs in the interim.
The short-term pattern is ugly and a loss of this support would eliminate the previous pattern we noted on a weekly chart, which projected to 35. Because, hit it boys…
Meanwhile, a loss of support is not a loss of support until it is lost. But much like we noted in the GDX video update a couple days ago, an oversold daily RSI was reset upward prior to FOMC and the hawk-inducing payrolls report. So that would be the necessary re-fueling for a drop if applicable.
Silver status
- Long-term neutral with a bullish bias
- Short-term neutral with a bearish bias
If you look at the PGM metals, natural gas, among other commodities, then you can not escape the suggestion that we might see a final commodity flush in the coming weeks and months. And that this might drag the PM’s down as well, albeit to a much lesser extent. Bart
Despite the hype I have never been huge on silver. Just today someone sent me this link at mining.com, discussing initiatives for labeling silver a ‘critical material’ due to supply/demand and its uses in so many strategic markets/technologies. I’ll believe it when I see it. However, gold is different. It and its little brother silver – AS PRECIOUS METALS – tend to the lead commodities, not follow them. Hence, I don’t see gold flushing because some commodities are getting annihilated. Gold is monetary. Commodities are cyclical and inflation sensitive. Silver dresses in drag between the two.
https://www.mining.com/top-producers-push-for-silvers-inclusion-as-a-critical-mineral-in-canada-and-the-u-s/
Thanks Gary, much appreciated. And I agree with you. It is just that the seasonals for commodities and pm’s are very similar during this time of the year. Anyway, for better or worse I bought some commodities today. Which probably means they have a bit lower to go.
I was actually looking at the seasonal for NatGas earlier. It turns up in mid-February based on 30yr average.
Correct. I was more looking at pgm’s.
And thanks again, Gary, because you did change my mind today. Bart
Well, this discussion resulted in me re-checking the NatGas seasonal and giving AR another bottom feed try. Argh!