GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, faces its first clear resistance
Oh how long we have used this chart to guide into and out of rallies and corrections in the gold stock sector. Since Q4, 2022. The daily chart is best for sensitive guidance on the swings within the larger technical situation (intermediate rally from Q4, 2022 has held intact so far after filling the gap as long projected, but not dropping below it (yet, at least). This has been the primary NFTRH correction target, although we have since increased attention on a lower target (see below).
If you know me, you know that the “Death” and “Golden” cross notes were put in there to advise of the opposite outcome to what robotic TAs instruct. The recent Death Cross advertised “bounce coming” at some point. Well, here is that point.
GDX is at clear resistance #1 as it leaves an up gap today (to be filled at some point, near or longer-term) and market relief sweeps over the land. When that relief morphs to chest thumping, sloganeering and preaching in the “community”, well, you know what that’ll mean.
As to the TA, if GDX gets through resistance the next key point is that Death Cross (ha ha ha) junction. Then more clear resistance at 33. Some day it will fill the gap up there at 40. Will that day come soon? It’s possible, given the sentiment backdrop leading into last week. But…
…dear enthusiastic buggish friends, please be aware that gold stocks are rallying now with all sorts of other asset markets. They are not unique and the real investment opportunity will come after they become unique. Which in turn means after the next bear market becomes obvious to all and gold reasserts eminence over the asset world. That is trick wording because gold is doing nothing but sit there. Its eminence will actually be its relative strength as monetary insurance.
At that time the miners will surprise all the robotic thinkers who believe that gold stocks will never out-perform gold because they did not do so when in their minds they were supposed to during the last inflationary 20 years.
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