Gold Stocks (GDX); per Plan

Gold stocks approach NFTRH target; what’s next?

Hey, what do you think I am, a swami? I don’t definitively know the answer to that. The guru or perma-bull down the street has had all the answers the whole way.

What I do know is that we have had a target – with which I am confident that NFTRH subscribers who wished to take action, long ago did – in place for GDX since before the double top in May. I can’t give away information like that when it is actionable, but now, nearly 2 months out, I can.

Here is the daily chart of GDX we’ve used to manage the correction. Maybe with this week’s resumed Fed hawk stuff GDX will finally be driven to fill the sub-28 gap, as long anticipated. If it does that, holds and eventually reverses upward it will be to the larger plan. If it drops below the March low and something instigates a breakdown to fill the 22.72 gap (deflationary market liquidation, unbridled speculative bubble excess, or some unforeseen antagonist?), the plan will have been wrong.

But the thing is, the plan is on plan as long as a higher low to the March low holds. We’re not even close to it yet, anecdotally I am hearing much belly aching and/or resignation among the buggish herds and that is not only as it should be in this situation. It is how it always is.

So, pending the unfolding macro, I see no reason why sub-28 GDX would not be a buy for myself and interested NFTRH subscribers who took action long ago. The caveat being whatever drama may unfold at final capitulation by the confederacy of inflation bugs and perma-bull bugs flying flags and spouting slogans through most of the correction. But now? No so much. Are they clinging in quiet desperation? That is the question. It’s not only the English way; it’s the gold bug way. At least in my fertile imagination. :-)

We are oh so close that gap fill now. I don’t want to have too much bravado about it. Sometimes gaps sit there, tempting men who stare at charts only to not fill. So let’s also realize that all other things being equal on the macro, the risk/reward is good and getting better with every tick down. As long as that March low holds, RvR will improve every step of the way, technically, all things equal.

Gold stocks, GDX daily chart

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Gary

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This Post Has 2 Comments

  1. Mike Cortopassi

    It is terribly mentally unfortunate that I *STILL* let this market bother me. 1) That I am FOMOing the regular market and 2) That I still believe gold should almost *NEVER* go down.

    I know they are both irrational. I know gold going to $5000 or the market cratering, or rates going up a bit more, or a recession happening now vs. 6 months from now is not going to change my retirement trajectory all that much, if at all!

    I am getting closer to getting past all this, but, yeah, on days when gold drops below a big round number like $1900, it bugs me.

    1. Gary

      Mike, gold probably needs a test of the daily SMA 200 (1859 and trending up). I don’t see why that should stir up emotions. I really don’t.

Comments are closed.