Well, I have been all over the place with these two (especially silver), looking down, looking up (small inverted H&S pattern), down, up, down…
You get the picture. I have been introducing a lot of noise I guess because the daily activity as represented in the charts has been noisy, erratic (esp. silver) and I took the bait to over-manage it. So why not one more time?
Gold (futures) have so far held the initial support area at the mid-upper 1900s. It could be a little double bottom, which would be proven if gold takes out the blue SMA 50 and holds it. That would not guarantee new highs but it could prompt a test of the red dotted trend line, which on a longer-term chart would be the triple resistance breakout line. In other words, it’s the gatekeeper to new all-time highs. MACD and RSI are negative but with a decent look.
Silver feigned a breakdown from a bear flag, but put in a hammer candle and is now trying to take the little pattern’s neckline again. Stop me if you heard this story before.
With both metals, the 50 day moving averages are important. Silver also has visible resistance at that area. Take it out and leave it behind and the precious metals could be ending the correction. Meanwhile, both remain below that marker. Recall the original objective of a small inverted H&S was for a test of the highs, so it would not be guarantee of new highs. Just a test of the 25.60 area as I recall.
As you know, I’ve wanted to see a deeper correction but the happy momo stuff going on in broad markets may be keeping the precious metals in the game as well. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that gold and silver could test their recent highs before the broad market tops. Then they could finish the correction later.
Other options in play too, but with gold and silver let’s just be aware that the correction is not yet technically over. Take out the 50 day averages and we’d need to evaluate ‘correction over or a test of the highs only?’
