[edit] My mistake; ES took out the August high but SPX remains perched below it. However SPY, when viewed by a chart that factors dividends, is above that marker. So, it’s close folks. Very close.
In pre-market, ES is taking out the August high. So barring a quick reversal, SPX will do so today as well.
That opens the gate to the SPX 4800 upside measured target we’ve had on watch. It is far from a guarntee, but now the first step needed is in place, a break through the August high. The next step is to hold it, and not have it be a bull trap breakout. The third step is to actually get it done, because a target is just a target, an objective, not something set in stone.
So if SPX were to launch a journey to 4800, it would likely impair the fundamental case for gold stocks because it is doubtful that gold would also go into party mode with whatever SPX thinks it’s partying about. Although a suddenly dovish Fed, for example, could do that.
Gold/ES is clinging to its higher low as of this morning. One way or another, gold bugs want to see that trend hold up. Stock bugs don’t care in the least what gold does. They want to FOMO and make back the coin they lost in 2022. It is entirely possible that SPX could make this move and fail and, in my opinion it is just as possible it could drive to 4800 if the break above the August high is real.
