Looks like we might go for a double bottom in the dollar and a blow off top in pm’s and the rest. And yes,TA is definitely more art than science. However, every discipline is from a certain level onward more art than science. Even science itself. One can study a lot of books, know all theories in your field, but in order to prove or formulate a big conjecture, one needs intuition. That is perhaps the only meaningful thing that humans have over machines. Of course we have emotions, which machines don’t, but there no original feelings; everything that can be felt, has already been felt countless times throughout history. One day, when there are only a few thousand humans left, living in accommodations like protected species, the machines will remember us most for that intuition, and marvel at the efficiency of gut feeling.
Gary April 11, 2023
I think you are being humorous at the end there, eh Bart? Brilliantly said, anyway. As for the art of the different disciplines, I think the key is in combining them to refine probabilities. TA + macro + sentiment + policy, I guess. It’s when a TA talks about her indications in overly important tones or a fundy talks about his findings as if they are not subject to wide time frame swings (and revision) that I tune out.
Bart April 11, 2023
You are right, Gary, and that makes you one of the best analysts out there. But I also think you have great intuition besides methodology. A good trader knows the rules, a great trader knows when to break them. And sorry I was rambling about the AI stuff, but it is IMO the greatest development of our time. Also in trading we see its presence. They are so fast and often make it impossible to scalp the markets. Fake outs used to be an exception, but have become very common. Professional investors/machines can see exactly where the stop losses are, and sometimes they hunt them down. A stop loss hunt freezes the selling for a moment. And then they start buying until its back above support, and – voila -the pendulum has swung. And there is nothing more bullish than a false break out.
Comments are closed.
Discover more from Notes From the Rabbit Hole
Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.
Looks like we might go for a double bottom in the dollar and a blow off top in pm’s and the rest. And yes,TA is definitely more art than science. However, every discipline is from a certain level onward more art than science. Even science itself. One can study a lot of books, know all theories in your field, but in order to prove or formulate a big conjecture, one needs intuition. That is perhaps the only meaningful thing that humans have over machines. Of course we have emotions, which machines don’t, but there no original feelings; everything that can be felt, has already been felt countless times throughout history. One day, when there are only a few thousand humans left, living in accommodations like protected species, the machines will remember us most for that intuition, and marvel at the efficiency of gut feeling.
I think you are being humorous at the end there, eh Bart? Brilliantly said, anyway. As for the art of the different disciplines, I think the key is in combining them to refine probabilities. TA + macro + sentiment + policy, I guess. It’s when a TA talks about her indications in overly important tones or a fundy talks about his findings as if they are not subject to wide time frame swings (and revision) that I tune out.
You are right, Gary, and that makes you one of the best analysts out there. But I also think you have great intuition besides methodology. A good trader knows the rules, a great trader knows when to break them. And sorry I was rambling about the AI stuff, but it is IMO the greatest development of our time. Also in trading we see its presence. They are so fast and often make it impossible to scalp the markets. Fake outs used to be an exception, but have become very common. Professional investors/machines can see exactly where the stop losses are, and sometimes they hunt them down. A stop loss hunt freezes the selling for a moment. And then they start buying until its back above support, and – voila -the pendulum has swung. And there is nothing more bullish than a false break out.