I have long waited for the Energy sector to crack (“last inflated man standing”) and finally it has. However, the crack is within an intact uptrend, using XLE as the example. I considered adding it yesterday but you know me; I tend to get hung up on gaps, and XLE has filled one downside gap and has others at 72 and just below 68. So I held off. There is also an upside gap left on the drop from a couple days ago and a little one way up near the highs
The problem is that if XLE were to fill the lower gap it could also take out any last vestige of the uptrend. So I will personally just watch for a bit and see what the short-term does heading into FOMC week. If markets pump (NDX leading) XLE could stop here or preferably fill the 72 gap and then rally. That could be a buying opportunity for you energy bulls out there (and I know you’re out there). If at some future point lower support is taken out we’d have a broken sector, which is my expectation later in ’23.
I’d say that a fill of the 72 gap and test of that support while flashing an oversold reading would tempt me to take XLE (or one or two of its components) for a spin. But practically, I just wanted to show this chart for anyone interested.
[edit] Chart should say “climactic volume developing?” as it could still be ramping up.
