I originally expected the 27-28 area to hold for GDX. So let’s not have some guy pretending that he predicted what is happening now. But let’s do recall that we have noted support in the 25 area and hysterically enough, a gap way down at 22.72 as a low probability outcome.
I forgot, it’s the gold stock sector. Drama and intensity are wired in. There is moderate support right where today’s price resides and GDX is getting nicely oversold. Rally here and it will have been a ‘turn and burn’ shakeout. Lose this level and the next support is 25 (+/-). Grind around there (perhaps) to relieve a bit of the oversold and then the next downside would be said gap fill below 23.
Can you imagine that? Well, gold stocks are getting hit with the anti-USD club and if USD is going to the target above 106, who knows what could happen? One day, under the right circumstances, the miners would leverage the counter-cyclicality implied by a rising dollar (and rising Gold/Silver ratio which, importantly, is breaking above its SMA 200 today).
So the bottom line is that gold stocks are dropping further than the hard but routine correction originally envisioned to the 27-28 area. But if this happens with the rest of the asset world running for cover it will be time – for those with the stomach and the cash – to be as aggressive as they’d like (per individual risk tolerance) to be buying quality gold miners. Frankly, a lower gap fill would be a dream come true IF I see pain and angst going on elsewhere.
This is likely the only update for today (I’ll be in and out). See you Sunday with NFTRH 746.
