With respect to the US indexes noted in yesterday’s update, the gaps have been filled, the market took the cue, bounced but then flopped today. However, as noted previously, unless the November 3rd (SPX) and 4th (NDX) lows are taken out the Q4-Q1 seasonal relief party can resume. If that level gives way back away from the punch bowl, there’s a turd in there! Ref. the update linked above for the parameters.
Apparently I gave too little weight to the 4th horseman of the US index Apocalypse (on watch as a potential for 2023). While the downside gaps filled in SPX and NDX, SOX still had/has work to do. I should have included this yesterday.
SOX (current: 2495) would fill the gap at 2472. Today’s low so far is 2482. Just an FYI for consideration.
The SMH has yet to fill it’s downside gap as well. A possible hint to more downside ahead ?
Sure could be. But it’s all short-term stuff and the parameters between keeping the seasonal rally intact and breaking it are very close at hand. Also, SMH/SOX could fill later when the market turns down hard again.