NFTRH+; another clear signal

Yesterday we noted the bullish moves in USD and the Gold/Silver ratio, giving a clear and negative macro signal.

Today, insofar as certain/many asset markets have been ‘anti’ yields in 2022, another negative is long-term yields (30yr in this case) breaking upward from a daily chart pattern first noted in an August 10th update, as the yield was being led by the KBE/SPY ratio.

Here is this morning’s conclusive break upward. Will it favor commodities and inflation trades for a bit? It’s possible. But at some point rising yields would probably bring similar pressure to most markets as last spring.

The above can still work within the framework of the big picture (monthly) ‘Continuum’ view. If TYX does not take out the previous high that came at our 3.45% target, we could still have a move lower to test the 2.5% pullback target area. But if the above were a stock I would consider buying it for a short-term trade.

Bottom line for me is a macro in a blender. Summer time. Maybe less than reliable market signals. I’ll continue to default to cash and consider adding another short or two. But cash is the thing for me now, baby.


This Post Has 2 Comments

  1. PaulP

    Cash is still a ‘position’ & judging by what you say above & what you said in yesterdays missive (re: USD & Au/Ag ratio) methinks that Cash could be a VERY good position a.t.m.
    Thing are getting interesting.
    Thanks for keeping us on track & thinking.
    All the best from Down-Under-Land

  2. Gary

    Agree. Cash is good enough at certain times when paying bupkis, but with the Fed shoe horned into raising rates it’s even better. Helps me keep patience getting some income on the thing.

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