As you know, the daily charts are in gross looking patterns, having failed to hold support. HUI has filled its ‘212 gap’ and also has a gap way down at 107 from the January 2016 launch.
Indeed, HUI is technically questionable on the weekly chart as well, but it is getting oversold and a channel bottom parallel to the 2020 and 2022 highs indicates a potential low here. The problem with that is there is only one downside touch point (9/21), so the projection is entirely based on the parallel line. Flimsy rationale, but there it is. The black wedge shows an objective of 190.
But the ETFs look better. First of all, neither of them has the 2016 gap that HUI has. GDX has a parallel channel where HUI has a wedge. The price touched the channel bottom this week. There is also a support level there that it’s trying to hold. As with HUI, GDX is oversold. If GDX does not hold here, 23 would be the next objective. A weekly chart hammer would be nice.
GDXJ is even more interesting. If it’s not going to hold here where on earth will it hold? This is pure punishment and that is what we are looking for.
If the miners do rally, and if they do it along with oil, copper and other commodities it will probably not be THE buy. But it could be A buy for a tradable bounce/rally at least.
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Dave Kranzler has pointed out rumblings in the credit markets:
–MOVE (bond market option volatility estimate index) has shot up to a level last seen in 2009; –Deutsche Bank share price down 50% since Feb., other major banks similar;
— credit default swap prices most expensive since March 2020.
Wall Street on Parade (June 29, 2022):
“explosion in growth of precious metals derivatives at insured U.S. commercial banks and savings associations between 4Q 21 and 1Q 22”
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