After this morning’s drop and today’s partial in-day reversal we find gold having thus far successfully tested the SMA 50. Dog gone if I know whether this reversal meant anything positive (low volume implies it didn’t) but the idea is to keep in mind a short-term pullback that if not yet completed could lead to the next leg up in the big picture.
Here is how the monthly chart closed today. It’s getting pretty close to the handle breakout point.
Let’s dial it in for a clearer view.
Risk/reward in gold has been positive for months now. If the 2022 theme is correct (the bull will resume) then gold has room to the low 1800s per the targets in the previous update and the moving averages on the chart above. But risk/reward is something different and again, if the 2022 bull view is right then gold’s current downside is much less than its upside. Captain Obvious wants you to know that.
The caveats remain the same. Unpleasant CoT and negative seasonal. But each of those have their own caveats regarding their predictability and timing utility at any given point.
All things being equal, I see the monthly gold chart as well on track to our current course. A continued reversal upward could paint me as having been too negative on the short-term with the lower targets. But a resumed pullback would not be something to cause undue concern as long as it roughly holds the 1800 area.
