The rubber being the 30yr Treasury yield and the road being the 2.5% to 2.7% target zone.
Here is the daily 30yr yield making good on the initial move we noted in last Wednesday’s update.
And here is the big picture ‘Continuum’ view.
Also, inflation indicators like RINF and the RINF/Gold ratio are launching upward into the Fed. Inflation is on full hysteria mode, much like the time in 2011 when silver ramped to 50, the commodity bubble was blowing out and Mr. William Gross, the media-dubbed “bond King” shorted the long bond, expecting the limiters to break and inflation to go steroidal. Well, it didn’t.
There’s always a first time and that time would be the von Mises ‘crack up boom’ time. But until this chart breaks out and stays broken out risk is high to the inflation view.
As a side note, the above is a monthly chart and the decision about a breakout to new ‘crack up’ stagflationary heights or failure into disinflation and/or a deflation scare could grind on for months. But the bottom line is that ever since the panic bottom in 2020 we have anticipated this date with the limiters and so here it comes. Handily, with the eggheads meeting this week.
