Just to be sure we are consistently keeping an eye on gold and its macro signals, let’s review again.
Gold/SPX shot up impulsively and pulled back hard on stock market relief, as expected. It held a logical pullback area before bouncing anew. Take out the (green) SMA 200 again and it’s time to pay even closer attention. Overbought RSI needed to be addressed and so it was. Now the path is clear for gold to out-perform if that is what is in the cards. The impulse up always was going to get corrected.
Gold/DJW (global) is and has been somewhat better, having broken upward after making a 6 month long base. It has held both moving averages on the expected sharp pullback. Keep this up a while longer and it will flip bullish. As it is, to my eye odds weigh in favor gold based on current status.
Gold/CRB (chart as of yesterday’s close) is as it has been, bearish for gold relative to commodities trend-wise, but with risk/reward heavily in favor of gold (ref. the monthly chart we often review).
Gold/Oil is in the dumps but today we see a nice 2.5% pop. More of that needed, obviously. This is an important one that needs to bottom and turn up for gold mining operational benefit.
Gold/GYX (industrial metals) continues to trend down as it also goes nowhere vs. a primary industrial metal, copper. RSI is sneaking above its EMA 20. Could be nothing, could be something.
Gold/RINF (inflation expectations) has continued to hold up despite the big surge in US payrolls and the cost-push inflation many expect and rising long-term yields. This one to me is a reflection of a firming view for gold relative to the inflated macro casino. It’s also a negative divergence for inflation.
