[edit] Side note: the 10yr is not nearly in such a contrary setup and not being privy to the inner workings of the vast bond markets and the policymakers manipulating them, I do not know why. It’s a bit a caveat to the below, however.
There appears to be no more contrary play out there than long-term Treasury bonds. The 30yr yield hit 2.4% today and with the target for the caution zone beginning at 2.5% I think it is time (for me personally, at least) to add some long bonds against a portfolio with a lot of cash and ‘anti-bond’ assets (items that have risen as the long bond has declined). Check out the sentiment situation for the 30yr.
Commercial hedgers, which will usually be right at turning points, are massively long the long bond.
The public, which will usually be wrong at turning points, are massively bearish the bond.
Considering that I will probably be wrong for a while in adding TLT (assuming I hold it) the fact that it will pay income every month is an important factor. Where gold is a sit on its ass risk ‘off’ asset bonds will pay income along the way.
Here is the weekly chart of TLT. I’ve had enough. I want to add some risk ‘OFF’ balance in the form of this debt paper. I may be the only person on the planet (other than those commercials above) buying the bond right now. I might also be wrong. It feels wrong, which is often a reason it may be right. We called the rising yield long before the herds thundering into the bond bear view now. I am taking a shot.
