NFTRH+; Gaps

The chart of gold futures does not readily show gaps but for the purposes of identifying emotional points the chart of GLD works well, just like any other stock.

Gold is getting creamed today and GLD is dropping to fill the gap. The situation is intact, technically but one possible negative is that the recent rally has filled the gap from early November. Also, as noted in #636 the CoT data are not very good. Today is a big news event day and when it shakes out gold will either resume upward or fail (watching the area of the SMA 50 and the gold dotted EMA 20, i.e. roughly 175).


Silver (SLV) is also filling a gap and is thus far technically normal.


Ever since the global macro rally went reflationary (i.e. cyclical positive due to inflation) we have tagged the precious metals as ‘just another sector’. Indeed, even if they stay bullish they are just another sector among the bullish items.

GDX is also normal, although it never did technically break the corrective consolidation. It can fill its gap and stay normal if it, and HUI, hold the moving averages. If not, it’s abnormal to the short-term rally and normal to the previous corrective situation.


The HUI/GLD ratio is holding firm and that is a hidden positive.

If the precious metals fail they fail. I for one will not sponsor the sector. While news-driven moves do not usually last it is better for us to be forewarned of what would turn things corrective again. As of now it’s just a reaction.