So above you see a sensational headline that thinks it is making a grand prediction for you. Well, it does not know any more than you or I. But it is noting an environment that has the earmarks of an end stage rally. These include…
- Uranium’s attention grabbing blast off out of nowhere. We were among the first to pick up on it, with your letter writer personally positioning on a value proposition (URPTF) and a few miner specs. So any perceived negativity on my part is validated by the fact that I have not sat on the outside looking in. Late coming pumpers appear to be all over it now. U is famous (to me at least when thinking back to the 2004-2008 time frame) for getting played hard by roving hedge funds and today, the machines they use. It also tended to move last or near last in a given ‘resources’ rally. The U bear has set up the segment for a potential new bull market and this could be a launch (much like silver earlier this year). But short-term, the vertical speculation is a caution signal.
- The speculation is far reaching, into Crypto – which is getting a pump like in its doomed heyday – and at face value, that is ending stuff. Not for the Bitcoin bull necessarily, but for this phase of the speculation promoted so aggressively by monetary and fiscal authorities in 2020.
- Pot stocks, the US based ones anyway, have been ramming ever higher. I think that is with good fundamental backing. But now I buy a ‘shroom’ stock less than 3 weeks ago and today it is +218%??? Please. This is speculation and vigorous speculation is a feature of end stage stock bull phases.
- Copper’s new cyclical bull market has given the green light to legions who trust the good doctor’s prescription for the global economy. But again, we’re only talking short vs. longer-term here. Bull or not, the positive cyclical plays are just that… played… aggressively by the late coming herds.
- And then of course there is the deplorably over-bullish sentiment we have been noting.
I cannot now nor have ever been able to pinpoint turning points. That is why I just diagnose what I see every week, churn and balance the portfolios and keep an open mind.
But in the markets risk vs. reward propositions are completely different from prices. RvR is terrible right now and prices are very bullish right now. At the least I am staying sensitive to profit taking and cash management. If all goes well I’ll have retained the majority of profits and also be set up for coming opportunities, likely beginning in the precious metals.