NFTRH 612’s Opening Notes: Lazy
I am going to attempt to keep NFTRH 612 compact relative to regular editions. Last night I wrapped up 2 days in New York City helping my daughter move, some things went wrong and I am getting back at it a little late on Saturday.
The issue is that many readers are probably more educated about the market in micro time than I am. All I knew for most of Thursday was that my accounts started out down and were down further by the end of the day as I checked in that night.
All I knew about Friday was that my accounts started out positive and ended the day very very positive. I needed that, considering how the day outside of the markets went. So yay me! I had another very good week and the analysis, and by extension my investment deployments, seem to be on track.
But I am not well educated on the whats and whys, if there were any. I assume the market is just playing to the script that we have been following. For newer subscribers, that script is not laid out ahead of time as a forecast or worse, a prediction. That’s for the wannabe gurus and swamis out there.
My method is more touchy feely, as trends and probabilities are followed, but with the analysis always subject to new inputs from material macro events or our indicators each week. That is the case whether the inputs are technical (like for example, a trend break or support failure), fundamental (like a Fed munny printing announcement, and by extension the state of the USD, etc.) or sentiment-based (like inflammatory media news).
Today as I begin #612 I don’t have much of a clue relative to how I usually begin a report. I expect to have more of a clue by the end, but will use my relative ignorance as an excuse to give myself a little break, skip the heavy stuff (like the macro and internal indicators that have guided us and will again guide us next week) and just maybe give you a break too, in what I hope is a restful mid-summer for you. Whatever the report turns out as, it will include what is the most fun for me, and that is the charts of stocks I hold, watch or use for their sector indications. This of course will include the miners.
All I know as I begin the report is that on balance, it’s all still working. The portfolios are at the highs of the year, there is negativity rising to the surface out there about the BPGDM being bearish for gold and gold stocks, the Hulbert HGNSI being bearish for gold and gold stocks and as noted last week, Tweets aplenty from gold bugs going sidelines with plans to buy back lower in August. But that is not what the charts have indicated. The charts have held trend and as it turns out, held initial support as well.
As for the broads, the VIX signal disturbed things for a couple days and then VIX took a nap and the markets stabilized. Yeah, sounds about right.
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