Rather than send too many emails, I sometimes use the Trade Log notes as a place to just get some stuff down on paper for myself and subscribers to consider. This was just dropped in there. I’ll drop a tweet (@NFTRHgt) when the Trade Log gets ‘talky’ enough, like today.
2.27.20 Notes: The email updating process is laborious, and I do feel that by pinging you with too many emails it gives the appearance that I have some grand statements to make as opposed to being just another market watcher like you, evaluating what the heck is going on. I may have been wrong about the GDX volume having been launch volume, but that is not nearly proven yet. With profits sitting there like fruits just starting to rot from over-ripe, you’ll notice I took more of them this morning (along w/ a loss). That way I can be a strong buyer when need be. At the moment the stock market is on the script of this morning’s email, with SPX attempting to bottom with a hammer candle around the SMA 200. We’ll see how that goes. While there is a case that gold stocks could go with a positive market rebound there is also a case that they could get the crap end of the stick in the short-term. Think about all the angst of the last few days and about how things could look for gold and other risk ‘off’ items if relief comes about.
Far be it from me to be an unrealistic bull. But also far be it from me to panic when something is moving along within parameters laid out ahead of time.
GDX 30 min. chart has retraced more than a 62% pullback and so that asks us to be conscious of the two gaps on this chart that would be relevant to day traders.
GDX daily says sure, it can spike down to around 28 and fill those gaps (which don’t appear on this daily chart) but the situation remains technically intact, even if such a spike comes about (assuming it reverses back upward quickly). The chart is in a Cup & Handle pattern and the momentum indicators are still positive. If they take the miners to the woodshed you’ll know it by a loss of the February low at 27.77. But thus far it is intact and holding its up trending moving averages.
I do have a concern about that up volume now. Those were momos chasing the sector and if the broad market recovers we could get a good old fashioned smack down. Just speculating here. Let’s see what unfolds.