Well, the anonymous (but all too real) bullhorns from February symbolically killed the rally. They announced to the world how high gold was going (synthesizing two of them gold was promptly going to $1400, which would “dramatically accelerate” off of a “gargantuan pattern” to $3000).
Some people do not like it when I criticize, even anonymous others. But I would never write garbage like that and as a pro-gold person I hated seeing it broadcast to the gold bug community like that. It turned out to be a fabulous contrary indicator to the top in February.
Moving on to today, gold is breaking below the neckline to the bearish pattern and it is doing this in line with the far from constructive Commitments of Traders data it has been lugging around. What we have now is the potential for a bottom at a low risk level with a contrary positive CoT. But there is a lot of work to do yet.
Gold futures are breaking below the neckline and the chart shows the downside targets we’ve been tracking (SMA 200 at 1253 and lateral support at 1240). It also adds an extreme support area that just happens to be the measurement from the now-activating pattern (1215).
Could this be a bear trap? Sure. Do I think it likely? No, mainly because of the CoT situation and the ongoing party in risk ‘on’ cyclical assets. What I will say is that a future buying opportunity could look like stocks topping out, gold CoT contrary bullish, gold at 1215 (or 1240) and the same bull horns who kicked off this correction guiding the gold community to lower levels using fear as the tool where once it had been greed.