It feels to me like a change is coming to global macro markets. That may sound like a Captain Obvious statement since much of the world is already being dragged down while the Good Ship Lollypop sails on with its lunatic captain tweeting, taunting, bullying and importantly if we are going to champion the truth, overseeing thus far successful economic policy, all the while.
But it feels like some changes are at hand. I don’t so much feels it ins me bones as I get it through certain indicators. To turn the macro we need more such dark indications. One thing I have written about a lot in NFTRH is carts and horses. In other words, we need to keep Thing 1 behind Thing 2 and not get ahead of ourselves. I make these reminders for myself – a sometimes impatient sort – as much as for anyone else. Discipline takes work, and reminders.
Anyway, as a macro market
analyst geek/nerd/dork (I actually hate the crossed out word, because it sounds so self-important and it is peopled by many who could not actually analyze their way out of a paper bag unless they get lucky or happen to have a paint-by-numbers book on hand) I can have a lot of fun along the way of the economy’s and markets’ cycles, but also a lot of long stretches where there is not much going on other than extrapolation of trend.
But then there are the times of change. Most profoundly in Q4 2008, just after NFTRH was launched on September 28th of that excellent year. There were others, like the 2015-2016 market top (that wasn’t), that required agility and out of the box thinking in order to stay on the right side of things.
I feel I was a little slow on the uptake in 2012 in officially calling the gold stock sector in a bear market. That was when HUI took out a key support parameter at 460 (with gold still above the key 1526 support) for the second and final time. But better a little late than never. It had another 360 points of downside after that and currently, as NFTRH prepares to celebrate its 10th birthday (do you plan to attend?) I wonder if we might have an echo of Q4 2008 in play. Well, only the indicators and the weekly work will tell.
We most recently planned for a bottom in the S&P 500 last winter and a rise to test the January top. That has been the plan all summer. Typical of market things planned in advance, even when they work out they can make the planner have some doubts. For instance, I have been teetering on the verge of having to go with the SPX 3000+ target and yet the top-test scenario endures, amid some troubling signs. The process has taken longer than originally envisioned because every time President Big Mouth has tweeted something inflammatory (like Trade Tariff antagonism) the market’s sentiment has had little micro resets. Remember, bearish sounding news is a knee jerk and usually a refresher.
A note received yesterday from a subscriber (who was actually mailing to make sure I was aware that his subscription payment – by check – was due in September… <<< insert here a note about the best group of subscribers on the planet>>>) that I think sums up what we are trying to do here at Notes From the Rabbit Hole (so named as to differentiate the service from linear TA or FA operations)…
Thanks for your great service. As I mentioned last year, our investing strategies are different, but I rely on you for the most thorough and comprehensive view of the markets that I am aware of. Plus yours is completely devoid of ego and personal bias. I wish I had known of NFTRH in an earlier era when I was under the sway of the precious metals pumpers.
As to the personal bias CP notes, I have got it in spades. If you knew me in real life you’d know that I am no flower child and as I told a gold bug/fund manager friend I talk to once in a while, I basically hate everybody. Now, that is hyperbole. I love some people and really like a lot of people. But that trust has to be earned with me. Going the other way, that is exactly why I know that I need to earn my clients’ trust as well.
Not being a Mensa candidate or gifted in traditional areas like math, science or engineering I feel I have to work hard and keep an open mind. There are very very smart people out there making bad decisions about the markets. Again, remember that there are extremely smart people on either side of any given trade at any given time. That is crazy to think about, but true. Sometimes simple (backed by unbiased work in key areas) is best. Intelligent people sometimes make the mistake of arguing cases that their intelligence tells them is true. That’s another way of saying that egos get too involved in the process.
So the 28th of this Month is the 10th anniversary of NFTRH and will precede NFTRH 519 (on the 30th). I am not sure how to (or whether to) promote that, but I do not offer discounts because it is unfair to current subscribers. As the price of the service has risen over the years it is now not grossly under valued in my opinion, but rather fairly valued. For subscribers and for me. I see other services charging more for the equivalent of the Precious Metals update we just had yesterday morning, filled with strategy and objectives. But NFTRH’s updates are a free add-on. The weekly report is the real thing.
Anyway, cast a thought on the 28th to the newsletter/market service with the funny name or better yet, subscribe to it if you are not an exclusively chart watching day trader. It’s been 10 years of learning how to do this right and the next 10 will be even better.
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