NFTRH; Daily T/A on US/Global Stocks, Precious Metals & Commodities

Let’s take a simple checkup on daily charts across several areas.

Dow broke through the underside of a Symmetrical Triangle but until a lower low to the March 2 low of 24217 it has not broken down.

SPX retains a series of higher highs and higher lows off of the early February low. If it should make a lower low we’d need to be aware of the gap around 2460.

NDX fills the gap as expected and is still safely (for now) at a higher low after finding logical support at the SMA 50.

Europe got whacked yesterday but is still in a ‘W’ bounce stance. If the short-term bounce plays out the logical target would be the SMA 200 around 3520.

Canada is bouncing in a series of higher highs and higher lows. The sharply declining SMA 50 is acting as resistance.

China large caps are better because while the bounce was also halted, it was at the rising SMA 50. Both SMA 50 & 200 are rising and that is an uptrend.

Currency hedged Japan is more suspect on a daily chart as the Yen has been firm. A weakening Yen and long-term Nikkei support would be key, but for now the daily chart is not very good, with only the up trending SMA 200 as a benefit.

EMs failed to make a higher high but are intact above the early March low. This looks like many US sectors, frankly.

Russia retains a series of higher highs and higher lows… and its uptrend.

Gold lumbers along, not indicating risk ‘off’ or a flight to its safety. The trend is up.

Silver is as lame looking as it has been for weeks now. The previous lows define its ‘support’ (16.10) and its potential final drop points in the 15s and 14s.

HUI clings to the key short-term support area at 170. A break here, as with silver, could bring on a final flush scenario. The reason I label it a potential “final” is because as noted in NFTRH 491 elements are coming into place for a longer lasting rally whenever the next one gets here. The final plunge scenario would actually help that case. For now however, HUI holds 170 and let’s remember it is FOMC week and everyone knows that Powell’s Fed will seek credibility with a rate hike and possibly some hawky-talky. The precious metals often bounce after rate hikes.

CRB index looks lame as it curls below the SMA 50.

But crude oil, a major commodity component has assumed a stance at the top of its symmetrical triangle. A successful break above the SMA 50 could help put the complex back on firm footing.

Especially since Industrial metals are still intact to a higher low.

Moving on to some metallic indicators, GYX/Gold did not break down on yesterday’s market troubles and remains not bearishly actionable.

Copper/Gold is at a similar status.

And Palladium/Gold is stable as well. If these 3 were to break down as the stock market shows bearish nominal activity, it would be a significant bearish development. As of now however, it is not that.

Meanwhile, Silver/Gold continues to down trend. This is not particularly helpful to the stock market and commodities, nor to the precious metals.

Bottom Line

Markets have taken a hit but have not broken down, technically on the daily charts. If this is the start of a resumed correction they’d start breaking ‘lower low’ parameters. But it is FOMC week and it’s noisy (and volatile) out there. VIX spiked yesterday but can be considered to be still in its consolidation flag. Whether or not the market rallies in the very short-term, we got a view yesterday of what can happen when the VIX rises. Let’s keep an eye on its trend.

The precious metals continue to bide time, clinging to support (and thus, an FOMC week bounce scenario) but also with the potential to finally give it up and wash it out. That would – other things being equal – be a good buy opp.

Commodities are still up trending with the CRB looking suspect but Oil and Industrial metals look okay.