Gold Miners: Seasonal Swoon in Full Swing

And then of course we know what probably comes after. It can appear like clockwork. It’s fun to poke fun at the average gold bug as he pukes, but really I don’t think it’s him puking; I think it’s the big momos and hedge fund wizards burping up the sector now. I actually think the little guy learned his lessons for the most part. After all, all he’s got is his own bankroll while the big funds are hopped up on OPM (other peoples’ money).

The view for the gold sector has been since the September top (@ the equiv. of HUI 220, which we nailed to the penny in our targeting) for a decline to a seasonal low within a bullish (at least for me) scenario. After that, hopefully a ‘lock and load’ rally.

Of course, it would be more comfortable if the fundamentals would start to come in line in a readily apparent way (as they did when I bought with both hands, while also using those hands to pray in between :-) in Q4 2008) but that is not the situation we have right now. The funda are terrible all around. But you know what they say about price and technicals… they often lead the funda. I am starting to think greedy (but boringly patient).

gdx

I have few items that I held despite the loss of key support back in October, and they are eroding my portfolio’s performance to a moderate degree. But that’s fine, because it is not a surprise. The big picture technical view remains bullish and we are going to manage buy points as the process moves along through tax selling and the seasonal low tendency of December to January.

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