As you know, we have been setting HUI in the chains of the now-declining SMA 200. Here is the daily chart. The parameters are the 50 (blue) and 200 (red) day moving averages, the April high and finally, the February high. Beyond those, Huey is on a new bull phase of a new bull market. Until those milestones are met, it is not.
But if I am a bear (I am not, but am short GDX, tentatively as something of a hedge and a speculation, avoiding leverage so I can be a little stronger than usual) I am a little creeped out by the bullish looking charts I see in the sector. Here are a few.
RGLD is actually getting overbought at around the measurement of its ‘W’ pattern.
FNV actually measures to above 80 per the pattern. We first noted the bullish patterns on these two several weeks ago. I thought “hmmm… “ then and I am thinking it now.
KL.to is making a ‘W’ of its own, but not as a bottoming pattern. As a would-be continuation pattern.
Little AAU made a bull flag to the SMA 200 and popped, trying to break the flag’s downtrend. We’ll see on this volatile little one.
SBB.to is in a nice little intermediate bull cycle out of December.
WDO.to has been declining to the preferred pullback/buy level we’ve been noting, but is in a nice series of higher highs and higher lows, and not just by this daily chart. It goes all the way back to 2013, believe it or not.
Meanwhile, here is roughly what the gold-oil ratio (a fundamental indicator for the gold sector) is doing on the daily view. Gold vs. oil has been rising since December and is above the 50 and 200 day averages.
So while the sector is indicated to still be held in bear chains, several individual items are in bull trends and that has got to mean something. I have also looked at individual items like BTG making a little bull twitch on a daily chart, but I don’t highlight it because there is no trend and these things can be reversed in a heartbeat, especially in this sector. Others, like SAND and KLDX look like bottom feeder specials *if* the sector is near a turning point.
One thing I wonder about though is, could the sector make a final low with the likes of the overbought RGLD for example, simply dropping to test support? It and others are on bullish divergences but that does not mean they will not make normal pullbacks.
So for now I am tentatively holding my GDX short but also holding my few longs… and looking to add more; but with patience until I can get a read on the sector as a whole. See you Sunday with NFTRH 449!