HUI 195

That’s the limit folks.  Ever since HUI and GDX failed to exceed the November highs we’ve been on pullback watch.  What makes matters more complicated is that said pullback has not come during a confirmed new bull phase.  In not joining the XAU index and GDXJ in breaking above the Nov. highs HUI and GDM/GDX negatively diverged and now everything’s obviously failed.  So as we’ve been painstakingly noting, it was only a bounce, technically.

Now 195 is the key to Huey remaining above a neckline to a bearish pattern.  Another key in that area is the weekly EMA 55, which had imprisoned Huey during the bear market.  It eased below that marker today.

hui weekly

I know that PDAC is upcoming and the hype storm is in full swing.  I covered a short against NUGT in after hours today but hold silver short.  The now-scattered bugz will be pumping again at some point but I’ll continue not to buy in with any sort of conviction until I get the proper fundamentals (hint: forget inflation and 90% of perma-pump gold bug analysis) lining up.  For that, we need our big bloated friend, the Pig to top out (preferably around the 2410 target, but whatever… ) and other signals to start indicating risk ‘off’.

Regardless of what the gold obsessives put out there constantly, the gold sector’s fundamentals are not in line and have not been in line since early last year.

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