#436 is more conversational than usual and it compiles a hell of a lot of information to continue honing our plan. As it stands, the general plan is very much on track with SPX lurking below 2410 and animal spirits in play.
Going the other way, respect the risk ‘off’ contingent (T bonds, Utes, Gold, etc.) to varying degrees and time frames, and realize that when this party ends, it’s gonna be a bummer for today’s revelers; especially if they have not rotated with the macro cycles.
For instance, as you can see in the screenshot, we’ve reviewed what sectors would be favored on a relative basis in a declining interest rate environment. The massive herd is, after all, stampeding in a rising interest rate direction. In the event the market has no great bear just around the corner, there are sectors to be in and others not to be in (hint: remember how bullish we got on the Semis nearly a year ago? Now, not so much).
There’s plenty more in this report to boot. The best ones are the ones that make me, the writer, feel as though I’ve remained connected with a grounded, reasoned and logical view. This one did that for me.
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